Why Sweden’s Coronavirus Approach Is So Different From Others

To the rest of the world, the Scandinavian countries are known far more for their similarities than their differences. A region full of happy people in safe environments with wide-ranging welfare programs, Scandinavia often does things as one. One surprising exception is the response to the coronavirus crisis.

There’s mounting criticism among doctors and academics on Sweden’s “wait and see” approach. While Denmark and Norway closed their borders and imposed strict regulations on their residents, Sweden has done relatively little. Major events such as the start of the Swedish soccer season are postponed and universities are closed, but otherwise everyday life continues.

The Swedish media is certainly not ignoring the crisis, with the quantity of COVID-19 reporting keeping pace with Denmark and Norway. But step out on to the streets and you would be hard-pressed to tell the difference from before the virus struck. Schools remain open, as do the borders. Most cafes, restaurants and shops are open.

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven asked all citizens to avoid non-essential travel and for those who feel ill or are over the age of 70 to stay home, but has so far stopped short of implementing many of the strict emergency measures seen in Denmark and Norway. "Us adults need to be exactly that: adults. Not spread panic or rumours. No one is alone in this crisis, but each person carries a heavy responsibility," he said during a recent televised speech.

Locals are taking matters into their own hands

Despite the government choosing to issue guidance over the implementation of restrictions, many locals are taking things into their own hands. The public transport company of Stockholm reported a fall in passenger numbers of 50% last week.

Author and photographer Lola Akinmade Åkerström runs the website Slow Travel Stockholm. She describes the mood in the Swedish capital as quiet: “Although schools are open, many parents are keeping their children at home. Also, a lot of Stockholm companies made an early decision to close offices and move to homeworking.”

The science behind the Swedish strategy

While the Prime Minister has drawn criticism from many for this stance, it’s actually data from the health authorities that is the driver. In an article on The Conversation, two professors from the University of Lund explained that results from data simulations have been used: “From these simulations, it is clear that the Swedish government anticipates far fewer hospitalisations per 100,000 of the population than predicted in other countries, including Norway, Denmark and the U.K.”

However, when running the data through the British models, the number of deaths predicted for Sweden is much higher. “The reason appears to be that Swedish authorities believe there are many infected people without symptoms and that, of those who come to clinical attention, only one in five will require hospitalisation,” said the professors.

Despite this confusing difference in model results, Karin Pettersson from Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet said there is “fairly broad support” for the Swedish approach: “There is no rebel mood here. Support for the Social Democrats has gone up and people have high confidence in the Institute of Public Health.”

Is the strategy working?

According to the Swedish Institute of Public Health’s daily briefing of March 30, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in the country has passed 4,000. The number is very similar to the infection rate in Norway, yet twice as many people live in Sweden.

However, Akinmade Åkerström says there’s a simple reason for the relatively low infection numbers: “Very few people are being tested so it’s impossible to know the true spread of the illness.”

While the infection numbers are difficult to compare, the difference in death rate is more clear-cut. At the time of writing, 146 people with COVID-19 have died in Sweden. In Norway, that number stands at 32.

Two days ago, the Swedish Public Health Agency’s Karin Tegmark Wisell said in a radio interview that it was “too soon to tell” if the Swedish approach is proving successful. She said that the higher death rate in Sweden (when compared to Norway and Finland) is down to “the virus having reached more of those at greatest risk here.”

Last weekend, public gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, in the the first sign that the increasing death rate may lead to a stricter approach from Swedish authorities.

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