China is unlikely to re-open its borders in 2022

By Sue-Lin Wong: Correspondent, The Economist

IN JUNE 2021 one of China’s most respected scientists tentatively suggested that the country might want to begin relaxing its zero-covid policy in 2022. Zhang Wenhong, who has been likened to Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, for his sober, science-based analysis, was pilloried online. Official media published a story by a former health minister (whose background is in finance) expressing “astonishment” at the idea of easing controls. The Communist Party has made the goal of eliminating covid-19 infections a top priority. China is the last large country in the world with a zero-covid policy.

A single case can lead to city-wide testing and lockdown. Local officials have been fired over a few cases in their districts. Most foreigners have been kept out, and anyone who is able to get into the country must spend at least 14 days in strict hotel quarantine.

Many people in China like being covid-free. This makes it hard for the party to reopen borders. The Delta variant’s rampage through other countries has confirmed leaders’ belief that moving towards a “covid tolerant” society would be disastrous. The domestic propaganda machinery has spent months boasting of the superiority of China’s authoritarian system in suppressing the virus.

China is the last large country in the world with a zero-covid policy

Though a few of the country’s top scientists have cautiously questioned how long China’s zero-covid policies may last, there are no signs the government is moving away from its position.

Any change to this message would take time and would also be embarrassing. It will be hard to convince people that living with the virus is not as scary as the party has claimed. Moreover, China is in a better position than most countries to stay closed: its exports have barely been affected, and foreign direct investment is higher than it was before the pandemic.

Strict quarantine requirements may therefore persist for much, if not all, of 2022. Chinese airlines have said they expect tight restrictions on international flights to extend for the first half of the year. The party has several important events it does not want disrupted by covid-19 outbreaks. The Winter Olympics start in and around Beijing in February, followed by the annual session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament. The five-yearly party congress in late 2022 is expected to confirm Xi Jinping as the country’s leader for at least another five years. The party may even choose to wait until after the annual parliamentary meeting in March 2023 to relax border controls, suggests Huang Yanzhong of the Council for Foreign Relations, an American think-tank.

Vaccine politics bring further complications. China wants 80% of its population vaccinated by the end of 2021. But no foreign vaccines have been approved and its home-grown ones, including Sinopharm and Sinovac, are not very effective against Delta. Even so, these vaccines still prevent severe cases of covid-19 which, in theory, reduces pressure on the health-care system. But in China, even people suffering from mild symptoms are hospitalised. As a result, opening up could pose challenges to hospitals, especially in rural areas. Chinese companies are developing new vaccines based on mRNA technology, but no evidence has yet been released about their efficacy.

Hong Kong may prove to be a bellwether. The city’s government is desperate to open its border with mainland China. It has had only a few new cases in recent months. But the mainland authorities have refused. If they change their mind, that will be a sign that the party is finally ready to abandon its zero-covid policy.

Sue-Lin Wong: Correspondent, The Economist ■

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2022 under the headline “Closed, indefinitely”