NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticVTGZ3C70YN1NY4F3XwAfZm2vsH+s/7sL9ahWLhVnLmOpeIQEi7RJvEBsbT0llBepYmogiRKwkAsZoNnKhcSfMTn9ET0=NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRT8TSJXECTVNZTXHvRbcTNaCjU8PadnDrTg6C3MG8RNvwnY18KL/cpEaMS2g0sIqrvtPcyHp30fS+l9NwqeRVh1U8=
10 countries at risk of becoming demographic time bombs
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticVTGQX5WQ6VFP9Z8N015aZWRDSDkXDPT9FkyzVnQwzx31TnJzi+tk3Y7DZptB3LqJMiyA6+46HFpqbm0UvXOMDVataP4=
All around the world, countries are seeing dwindling birth rates
and rising life expectancy. Aging populations are leading to
greater spending on healthcare and pensions, but the number of
people working and paying taxes is steadily going down. As a
result, these countries are at risk of becoming "demographic time
bombs," signifying a crisis of too few working people.
Demographers say countries need fertility rates of
2.2 children per woman to maintain a stable population, but many
nations' birth rates, such as those of South Korea and the United
States, have fallen below 2.
An increase in immigrant workers can help alleviate these trends,
but immigration alone can't reverse a demographic time bomb if a
significant number of citizens leave for employment in other
countries.
Some places, such as the town of
La Estrella in Spain, already reveal what a demographic time
bomb can look like - a decreasing population, a large number of
elderly people, and few children.
Here are some of the countries most at risk of becoming
demographic time bombs:
In the United States, the fertility rate has reached a record low of 1.76.
The fertility rate in the United States
fell to an all-time low last year. Americans' average
life expectancy, meanwhile, sits at a relatively high 78.7
years.
Many experts say the 2008 economic recession and high college
tuition are contributing to this trend.
According to a 2018 survey in The New York Times, however,
adults who want kids
say they sometimes end up having few, or zero, kids due to
the high cost of childcare. The average cost of full-time
childcare exceeds $10,000 a year in several states,
according to Child Care Aware of America.
The US birth rate has remained
below "replacement level" since the 1970s, which means not enough
children are being born to keep the population at a steady level.
Last year, the US Census
Bureau wrote in a
paper that women who have kids
between the ages of 25 and 35 have more difficulty in getting
fair pay than women who give birth outside of that range.
American women are now having children older than ever.
The ratio of retired citizens to
working Americans keeps increasing, though the number of
immigrant workers
is going up as well.
Spain has more deaths than births each year, and some towns are already nearly abandoned.
The number of deaths in Spain
has outpaced the number of births for years.
Spanish women
tend to give birth later in life than most other European
women, and Spaniards also live longer than anyone else in the
European Union.
On average, women in Spain have 1.5 children.
Although Spain's population increased in 2017 for the second
straight year, the change was partly due to a rise in migrant
arrivals, according
to Reuters .
In Spain's northeastern Aragon region, one village
already shows what a demographic time bomb can look like. The
only remaining residents of La Estrella are two people in their
80s.
Last year, the Spanish government hired
a special commissioner to determine how to reverse
falling birth rates.
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
A rise in immigration to Italy has not helped the country steer clear of becoming a demographic time bomb.
A record-low 464,000 children
were born in Italy last year, and the country's mean age has
surpassed 45 for the first time ever.
The number of immigrants to Italy rose last year and the number
of Italians leaving the country decreased, but neither trend is
reversing Italy's path toward a demographic time bomb, according
to The Local.
Many Italians want to have two or more children,
The Local reported, but cite difficulties in finding
employment as a factor in their decisions not to.
Bulgaria's population is shrinking faster than any other nation in the world.
The population of Bulgaria, the European Union's poorest member,
may soon become as low as it was in the aftermath of World War
II,
Bloomberg reported.
Bulgaria's population is shrinking faster than any other country
in the world; it is expected to hit only 5.4 million in 2050,
down from 7 million last year,
according to Quartz.
In addition, the country has seen an increase in emigration as
citizens seek job opportunities elsewhere.
Bulgaria's fertility rate is only 1.46 children per woman.
"The decline in the active
population is a social and economic bomb that will explode unless
we take adequate measures," Bulgaria's deputy labor minister,
Sultanka Petrova, told Bloomberg last year.
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
Latvia's population is steadily dropping, and many citizens are leaving the country to look for jobs in other parts of the European Union.
Since Latvia joined the European Union in 2004, nearly 20% of the
country's population has left to seek employment in others parts
of the bloc, such as Germany and the United Kingdom.
Latvia's population, reported to be nearly 2 million last year,
is estimated to fall to 1.52 million by 2050,
according to Quartz. The nation is one of 10 with the fastest
shrinking populations in the world.
All 10 countries are located in eastern Europe. In addition to
Latvia and Bulgaria, the populations of Ukraine, Croatia,
Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia, and Hungary are all
estimated to drop by 15% by 2050.
Some South Koreans cite a lack of financial stability as one of the main reasons they are not having children.
The South Korean government has offered cash incentives to people
who have more than one child, as the fertility rate
currently sits at 1.26 children per woman - too low to
maintain a stable population.
Amid the declining fertility rates, some South Koreans have said
they are not having children due to a lack of financial
stability,
according to Quartz.
Both the government and some private companies are providing
incentives for fathers to take parental leave in an effort to
reverse the effects of the potential demographic time bomb.
According to Quartz, demographers say South Korea's low
fertility rate is linked to women having children at an
increasingly later age. In 2017, the average age of a Korean
woman
having a first child surpassed 31. It was the
oldest average in the world.
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
The Japanese government is offering cash incentives in an effort to encourage women to have children.
Researchers are
worried about a demographic time bomb in Japan, where the
lowest-ever number of births was recorded last year.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government
has taken steps to encourage Japanese women to have children.
According to CNN, officials have offered cash payments and
other incentives. The country's fertility rate has risen
slightly, most recently reaching 1.44, which is comparable to the
1990s.
Unlike other countries with similarly low fertility rates, Japan
has not seen a significant influx of immigrants. A low number of
workers in the country decreases the amount of tax money going
toward retirement and healthcare services for older residents,
who are
growing in numbers.
Some parts of Japan are already
showing signs of a demographic time bomb, with a dwindling
population and a large number of elderly residents.
Immigration can help reverse a demographic time bomb, but the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union has led to a fall in migration.
The United Kingdom's birth rate has fallen to its lowest level in
a dozen years,
The Times reported.
At the same time, the number of British residents age 65 or older
is rising due to better healthcare and higher living
standards. The UK's referendum to leave the European Union has
led to a decrease in the number of immigrants, who are generally
younger, leading to an
increasingly older population.
According to The Guardian, the number of elderly people
without social care has peaked, with one in seven lacking
adequate support. About 1.4 million residents who are older than
65 are not receiving help with getting up or getting washed.
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
Singapore has the lowest fertility rate in the world, but economists say the effects of a demographic time bomb can still be reversed.
Singapore's fertility rate, 0.83, is the lowest in the world.
A 2017 report by the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank
suggests that the country
is on a similar path as Japan. In 2017, for the first time in
modern Singapore's history, the percentage of people who were 65
years old or older was equal to the share of residents younger
than 15.
Although Singapore's workforce is aging and the proportion of
youth is declining, the report suggests that Singapore's economic
decline may still be reversed. The report recommends that
Singapore's government recruit more immigrant workers - something
Japan has not focused on.
Two years ago, China began allowing families to have two children instead of one, but the policy change has not done enough to reverse a decreasing fertility rate.
China's fertility rate keeps dropping despite the government's
2016 decision to allow families to have two children instead of
one (a policy that had been in place since 1979), so local
authorities
are taking steps to encourage more childbirth.
Some provinces want to pay cash bonuses to parents who have a
second child, and others have suggested eliminating limits on
childbirth altogether. The National Health Commission, meanwhile,
has
reportedly asked researchers to study whether tax breaks
could help spark a baby boom.
And the northern Shanxi province announced China's first marriage
subsidy earlier this year, offering to help couples with the cost
of wedding photographs, honeymoon travel, and more.
About 25% of China's population
is expected to be 60 years or older by 2030, a significant
increase compared to the roughly 13% of residents who were part
of that age bracket in 2010.
Correction (August 13, 2018): A photo of Japanese prime
minister Shinzo Abe was previously featured in the slide on South
Korea. That photo has now been replaced.
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticNHRPRVRGQ8ZSAQDK6Eut2yTyWYuQzofhTq9H/J+06ld9iNbcurYYov2tVNZ7KNIOimJx+BMCe3Sir04xw8ZsahMrN/A=
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticVTGMBDQV9MF1X1HCKSAI7NJS3qmIPp4HQRipw2hD/KQoAqWAhR01xPuH+nEbf4aiiV67JR6lv3txH1KUmt4qX+yIXSM=
NoSuchBucketThe specified bucket does not existuswww-amp-staticYBS5T698E4PR19YCSEpHqJCaDYii9Tmem5tt8T6kz0folYYM/Wdaw0wmwQ8b/RgiyulD3GoezMxuuuOQhyleqqN7dOY=