WO2007084315A3 - A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction - Google Patents

A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2007084315A3
WO2007084315A3 PCT/US2007/000696 US2007000696W WO2007084315A3 WO 2007084315 A3 WO2007084315 A3 WO 2007084315A3 US 2007000696 W US2007000696 W US 2007000696W WO 2007084315 A3 WO2007084315 A3 WO 2007084315A3
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
wind
wind speed
point
interest
statistical
Prior art date
Application number
PCT/US2007/000696
Other languages
French (fr)
Other versions
WO2007084315A2 (en
Inventor
Sai Ravela
Kerry A Emanuel
Original Assignee
Sai Ravela
Kerry A Emanuel
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Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Sai Ravela, Kerry A Emanuel filed Critical Sai Ravela
Priority to AU2007207834A priority Critical patent/AU2007207834B2/en
Priority to JP2008550396A priority patent/JP5242414B2/en
Priority to CA2635686A priority patent/CA2635686C/en
Priority to EP07718020.6A priority patent/EP1971883B1/en
Publication of WO2007084315A2 publication Critical patent/WO2007084315A2/en
Publication of WO2007084315A3 publication Critical patent/WO2007084315A3/en

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01W—METEOROLOGY
    • G01W1/00—Meteorology
    • G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10—Services
    • G06Q50/26—Government or public services
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y10—TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC
    • Y10S—TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y10S706/00—Data processing: artificial intelligence
    • Y10S706/902—Application using ai with detail of the ai system
    • Y10S706/928—Earth science
    • Y10S706/93—Environment
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y10—TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC
    • Y10S—TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y10S706/00—Data processing: artificial intelligence
    • Y10S706/902—Application using ai with detail of the ai system
    • Y10S706/928—Earth science
    • Y10S706/93—Environment
    • Y10S706/931—Weather

Abstract

A combined statistical-deterministic approach to methods and systems for assessing risk associated with natural disasters, in particular, hurricane wind risk. One example of a method of predicting wind speed distribution within a predetermined distance from a point of interest includes steps of statistically synthesizing a large plurality of wind storm tracks that pass within a predetermined radius of the point of interest, running a deterministic simulation of wind intensity along each one of the large plurality of wind storm tracks to produce an output representative of wind speed distribution along each track, and using the output to estimate an overall wind speed probability distribution from a combination of the wind speed distributions along each track within the predetermined distance from the point of interest.
PCT/US2007/000696 2006-01-13 2007-01-11 A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction WO2007084315A2 (en)

Priority Applications (4)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
AU2007207834A AU2007207834B2 (en) 2006-01-13 2007-01-11 A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction
JP2008550396A JP5242414B2 (en) 2006-01-13 2007-01-11 Statistical decision methods for natural disaster forecasting.
CA2635686A CA2635686C (en) 2006-01-13 2007-01-11 A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction
EP07718020.6A EP1971883B1 (en) 2006-01-13 2007-01-11 A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction

Applications Claiming Priority (4)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
US75921506P 2006-01-13 2006-01-13
US60/759,215 2006-01-13
US11/388,185 US7734245B2 (en) 2006-01-13 2006-03-23 Statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction
US11/388,185 2006-03-23

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2007084315A2 WO2007084315A2 (en) 2007-07-26
WO2007084315A3 true WO2007084315A3 (en) 2008-09-25

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PCT/US2007/000696 WO2007084315A2 (en) 2006-01-13 2007-01-11 A statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction

Country Status (6)

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US (1) US7734245B2 (en)
EP (1) EP1971883B1 (en)
JP (1) JP5242414B2 (en)
AU (1) AU2007207834B2 (en)
CA (1) CA2635686C (en)
WO (1) WO2007084315A2 (en)

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Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
EP1971883A4 (en) 2010-07-14
JP5242414B2 (en) 2013-07-24
CA2635686A1 (en) 2007-07-26
JP2009532662A (en) 2009-09-10
EP1971883B1 (en) 2016-09-28
CA2635686C (en) 2016-09-13
US7734245B2 (en) 2010-06-08
US20070168155A1 (en) 2007-07-19
EP1971883A2 (en) 2008-09-24
WO2007084315A2 (en) 2007-07-26
AU2007207834A1 (en) 2007-07-26
AU2007207834B2 (en) 2011-12-22

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