CN105390013A - Method for predicting bus arrival time based on bus IC card - Google Patents

Method for predicting bus arrival time based on bus IC card Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105390013A
CN105390013A CN201510795522.XA CN201510795522A CN105390013A CN 105390013 A CN105390013 A CN 105390013A CN 201510795522 A CN201510795522 A CN 201510795522A CN 105390013 A CN105390013 A CN 105390013A
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bus
time
card
website
arrival time
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CN105390013B (en
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周雨阳
姚琳
陈艳艳
龚艺
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Beijing University of Technology
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Beijing University of Technology
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/123—Traffic control systems for road vehicles indicating the position of vehicles, e.g. scheduled vehicles; Managing passenger vehicles circulating according to a fixed timetable, e.g. buses, trains, trams
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting the bus arrival time based on a bus IC card, and belongs to the technical field of transportation. Analysis is made by comprehensively considering factors such as the bus model, the number of passengers getting on and the number of passengers getting off at each stop and the operation time, and a solution is provided for accurately predicting the bus arrival time based on a bus IC card. The method comprises the following steps: the accurate arrival time of a bus is recorded through artificial investigation; and the arrival time is matched with data recorded in a bus IC card, wherein the data after matching contains the bus line number, the bus number, the bus arrival time, the bus IC card swiping time, and the number of passengers getting on and the number of passengers getting off at each stop. A threshold for judging effective card swiping time is determined based on the analysis of the distribution law of the interval between adjacent card swiping time, and the bus arrival time is accurately predicted based on the card swiping data of different stops.

Description

A kind of method utilizing bus IC card to predict public transport arrival time
Technical field
The invention belongs to technical field of traffic transportation.Passenger's card using information by IC-card record predicts public transport arrival time accurately.
Background technology
The key of public transport development is to improve bus service level, and the public transport information of arriving at a station can not only reduce the stand-by period of passenger accurately in real time, facilitates passenger's reasonable arrangement to go on a journey, and also provides safeguard to the Rational Decision of bus operation person, intelligent scheduling.The main real-time Transmission adopting public transit vehicle GPS device of public transport arrival time prediction of China, although GPS positioning precision is high, but needed for equipment, expense is comparatively large, and popularization is lower, also cannot cover the real-time estimate that each public bus network realizes public transport arrival time in the short time comprehensively.
Utilize bus IC card to predict the method for public transport arrival time at present, usually adopt the charge time of getting off of recording in IC-card to average.Because passenger's usual selection before getting off is swiped the card in advance, and the factor such as degree of crowding is closely related on the time shifted to an earlier date and running velocity and car, therefore, when swiping the card fewer in number, the impact that the method is subject to charge time exceptional value is larger, and be difficult to predict arrival time exactly for different public bus network, cause the precision of calculating lower.
Summary of the invention
Utilize bus IC card to predict public transport arrival time Problems existing for tradition, the present invention considers vehicle, website is got on or off the bus, and the factor such as number, service time is analyzed, and provides resolving ideas for utilizing bus IC card Accurate Prediction public transport arrival time.Method is as follows:
By manual research registration of vehicle arrival time accurately, match with the data of bus IC card record, the packet after pairing to be got on or off the bus number containing public bus network numbering, car number, vehicle arrival time, bus IC card charge time and website.According to the analysis to the adjacent time interval regularity of distribution of swiping the card, determine the threshold value judging effective charge time, for the brushing card data Accurate Prediction public transport arrival time of different website.Concrete grammar and step as follows:
Step 1: by public transit vehicle on peak, flat peak and the vehicle arrival time of period festivals or holidays investigate, build differently to run period vehicle arrival time sequence wherein m is public bus network numbering, and n is car number, and k is car operation order of classes or grades at school, represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 1the arrival time subsequence of individual website.
Step 2: all bus IC card charge times of extracting coverage goal circuit working time form sequence represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 2the charge time subsequence of individual website; Website is got on the bus people's Number Sequence to get off people's Number Sequence with website if t is bus stop numbering, represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 3number of the getting on the bus subsequence of individual website; represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 4the numbering subsequence of individual website;
Step 3: in all sequences extracted, utilizes public bus network numbering, car number and car operation order of classes or grades at school, by vehicle arrival time sequence with bus IC card charge time sequence website is got on the bus people's Number Sequence website is got off people's Number Sequence match, obtain the sequence after matching this sequence comprises vehicle arrival time, bus IC card charge time and website and to get on or off the bus number, represent the subsequence after pairing respectively.
Step 4: by sequence in chronological sequence order sequence, and calculate the time interval s of same vehicle in same website adjacent two charge times l.If Δ t 1being the threshold value of the effective charge time after determining whether rejecting abnormalities value, by analyzing the regularity of distribution of difference of adjacent effective charge time, determining the threshold value Δ t judging difference of effective charge time 2.J is the s that satisfies condition l≤ Δ t 2record number of swiping the card.Difference between bus IC card charge time and vehicle arrival time is T, and maximum difference is T max.
T=1 is the starting station of vehicle operating, as t > 1, if i 2≤ 2, bus arrival time computing method be:
D p d ( t ) = D p d ( t - 1 ) + 1 2 [ D p - 1 d ( t ) - D p - 1 d ( t - 1 ) + D p d - 1 ( t ) - D p d - 1 ( t - 1 ) ]
In formula, d (d=1,2,3 ...) for swiping the card the date, p (p=1,2,3 ...) be section working time;
If i 2> 2, j < 3, computing method be:
In formula, N mfor the ratio of patronage N and seating capacity m on car.
If i 2> 2, j>=3, computing method be:
In formula, t lit is the last item charge time record;
The present invention has following beneficial effect:
The basic data of this invention derives from Based on Bus IC Card Data, and detect data etc. relative to GPS, the use of IC-card is more popular.The acquisition of IC-card data, without the need to arranging collecting device in addition, has low cost, wide coverage, the feature that data volume is large.Compare the tradition method predicting arrival time averaging time of swiping the card, this invention considers the degree of crowding and the indexs such as the number of swiping the card of getting off in vehicle, working time, car, public transport arrival time can be predicted exactly according to different automobile types and condition of road surface, reduce the Waiting time of passenger, simultaneously for the real-time information issue of public transport provides data and technical support.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 public transport arrival time prediction process flow diagram
Fig. 2 .1 is adjacent, and effective charge time differs from distribution histogram
Fig. 2 .2 is not more than the poor distribution histogram of adjacent effective charge time of 20s
Fig. 3 .1T max-N mgraph of a relation
Fig. 3 .2T max-j graph of a relation
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing in detail its specific implementation process is described to the present invention.By-21 days on the 15th April in 2015 to Beijing 52 tunnel, No. 486 buses on peak, flat peak and the vehicle arrival time of period festivals or holidays investigate, obtain 180 groups of vehicle arrival time data, match with all bus IC card charge times of 446 groups of coverage goal circuit working times of extracting, be used for calculating the mistiming of adjacent charge time and the difference of vehicle arrival time and charge time, by analyzing the rule of swiping the card of passenger, the arrival time of Accurate Prediction vehicle.
Step 1: the accurate arrival time being obtained public transit vehicle by manual research, in chronological sequence order arranges as shown in table 1.
Table 1 public transit vehicle arrival time statistical form
Step 2: extract the bus IC card charge time in the coverage goal circuit operation period, according to time sequence as shown in table 2.
Table 2 passenger getting off car charge time statistical form
Extract the target line website run in the period to get on or off the bus the volume of the flow of passengers simultaneously, as shown in table 3.
Get on or off the bus guest flow statistics table in table 3 bus station
Step 3: utilize that public bus network is numbered, car number and car operation order of classes or grades at school, in all sequences extracted, number of vehicle arrival time, bus IC card charge time, website being got on the bus and the website number of getting off are matched, and the data after pairing are as shown in table 4.
Table 4 bus IC card and manual research data pair table
Step 4: calculate same vehicle in the time interval of same website adjacent two charge times, the charge time that the time interval is not more than 72s is decided to be effective charge time.By analyzing the regularity of distribution of difference of adjacent effective charge time, Fig. 2 .1 shows charge time interval s lreach 257 in the quantity of 0-20s, 66%, Fig. 2 .2 accounting for sample size shows at 1-5s, s lquantity all more than 20, but from 6s, s lquantity drop to less than 10 rapidly, therefore, determine that 5s judges that cluster is swiped the card the threshold value of number.
Work as i 2during > 2, j < 3,258 paired datas of 48 websites meet restrictive condition.Charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxwith the ratio N of patronage on car and seating capacity mgraph of a relation is as shown in Fig. 3 .1.
Trendline according to Fig. 3 .1 can calculate, charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxwith the ratio N of patronage on car and seating capacity mpass is:
T max＝-15.59N m 2＋63.63N m-68.00
Public transport arrival time is:
Work as i 2when > 2, j>=3,240 paired datas of 50 bus stations meet qualifications.Charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxwith the relation of the number j that swipes the card as shown in Figure 3 .2.
Can be obtained by Fig. 3 .2 Trendline, charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxcan be expressed as with the relation of the number j that swipes the card:
T max＝1.17j-2.27
Public transport arrival time
Therefore, predict that the expression formula of public transport arrival time is
D p d ( t ) = D p d ( t - 1 ) + 1 2 &lsqb; D p - 1 d ( t ) - D p - 1 d ( t - 1 ) + D p d - 1 ( t ) - D p d - 1 ( t - 1 ) &rsqb; , i f i &le; 2 t l - ( - 15.59 N m 2 + 63.63 N m - 68.00 ) , i f i > 2 , j < 3 t l - ( 1.17 j - 2.27 ) , i f i > 2 , j &GreaterEqual; 3
Last it is noted that above example only in order to illustrate the present invention and and unrestricted technical scheme described in the invention; Therefore, although this instructions with reference to above-mentioned example to present invention has been detailed description, those of ordinary skill in the art should be appreciated that and still can modify to the present invention or equivalent to replace; And all do not depart from technical scheme and the improvement thereof of the spirit and scope of invention, it all should be encompassed in the middle of right of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. utilize bus IC card to predict a method for public transport arrival time, it is characterized in that:
By manual research registration of vehicle arrival time accurately, match with the data of bus IC card record, the packet after pairing to be got on or off the bus number containing public bus network numbering, car number, vehicle arrival time, bus IC card charge time and website; According to the analysis to the adjacent time interval regularity of distribution of swiping the card, determine the threshold value judging effective charge time, for the brushing card data Accurate Prediction public transport arrival time of different website; Concrete grammar and step as follows:
Step 1: by public transit vehicle on peak, flat peak and the vehicle arrival time of period festivals or holidays investigate, build differently to run period vehicle arrival time sequence wherein m is public bus network numbering, and n is car number, and k is car operation order of classes or grades at school, represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 1the arrival time subsequence of individual website;
Step 2: all bus IC card charge times of extracting coverage goal circuit working time form sequence represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 2the charge time subsequence of individual website; Website is got on the bus people's Number Sequence to get off people's Number Sequence with website if t is bus stop numbering, represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 3number of the getting on the bus subsequence of individual website; represent first website, second website respectively ... i-th 4the numbering subsequence of individual website;
Step 3: in all sequences extracted, utilizes public bus network numbering, car number and car operation order of classes or grades at school, by vehicle arrival time sequence with bus IC card charge time sequence website is got on the bus people's Number Sequence website is got off people's Number Sequence match, obtain the sequence after matching this sequence comprises vehicle arrival time, bus IC card charge time and website and to get on or off the bus number, represent the subsequence after pairing respectively;
Step 4: by sequence in chronological sequence order sequence, and calculate the time interval s of same vehicle in same website adjacent two charge times l; If Δ t 1being the threshold value of the effective charge time after determining whether rejecting abnormalities value, by analyzing the regularity of distribution of difference of adjacent effective charge time, determining the threshold value Δ t judging difference of effective charge time 2; J is the s that satisfies condition l≤ Δ t 2record number of swiping the card; Difference between bus IC card charge time and vehicle arrival time is T, and maximum difference is T max;
T=1 is the starting station of vehicle operating, as t > 1, if i 2≤ 2, bus arrival time computing method be:
D p d ( t ) = D p d ( t - 1 ) + 1 2 &lsqb; D p - 1 d ( t ) - D p - 1 d ( t - 1 ) + D p d - 1 ( t ) - D p d - 1 ( t - 1 ) &rsqb;
In formula, d (d=1,2,3 ...) for swiping the card the date, p (p=1,2,3 ...) be section working time;
If i 2> 2, j < 3, computing method be:
In formula, N mfor the ratio of patronage N and seating capacity m on car;
If i 2> 2, j>=3, computing method be:
In formula, t lit is the last item charge time record.
2. a kind of method utilizing bus IC card to predict public transport arrival time according to claim 1, is characterized in that: by analyzing the rule of swiping the card of passenger, the arrival time of Accurate Prediction vehicle;
Step 1: the accurate arrival time being obtained public transit vehicle by manual research, in chronological sequence order arranges as shown in table 1;
Table 1 public transit vehicle arrival time statistical form
Step 2: extract the bus IC card charge time in the coverage goal circuit operation period, according to time sequence as shown in table 2;
Table 2 passenger getting off car charge time statistical form
Extract the target line website run in the period to get on or off the bus the volume of the flow of passengers simultaneously, as shown in table 3;
Get on or off the bus guest flow statistics table in table 3 bus station
Step 3: utilize that public bus network is numbered, car number and car operation order of classes or grades at school, in all sequences extracted, number of vehicle arrival time, bus IC card charge time, website being got on the bus and the website number of getting off are matched, and the data after pairing are as shown in table 4;
Table 4 bus IC card and manual research data pair table
Step 4: calculate same vehicle in the time interval of same website adjacent two charge times, the charge time that the time interval is not more than 72s is decided to be effective charge time; By analyzing the regularity of distribution of difference of adjacent effective charge time, charge time interval s lreach 257 in the quantity of 0-20s, account for 66% of sample size, at 1-5s, s lquantity all more than 20, but from 6s, s lquantity drop to less than 10 rapidly, therefore, determine that 5s judges that cluster is swiped the card the threshold value of number;
Work as i 2during > 2, j < 3,258 paired datas of 48 websites meet restrictive condition; Charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxwith the ratio N of patronage on car and seating capacity mrelation;
Calculate according to Trendline, charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxwith the ratio N of patronage on car and seating capacity mpass is:
T max＝-15.59N m 2+63.63N m-68.00
Public transport arrival time is:
Work as i 2when > 2, j>=3,240 paired datas of 50 bus stations meet qualifications; Charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxwith the relation of the number j that swipes the card;
Can be obtained by Trendline, charge time and vehicle arrival time maximum difference T maxcan be expressed as with the relation of the number j that swipes the card:
T max＝1.17j-2.27
Public transport arrival time
Therefore, predict that the expression formula of public transport arrival time is
D p d ( t ) = D p d ( t - 1 ) + 1 2 &lsqb; D p - 1 d ( t ) - D p - 1 d ( t - 1 ) + D p d - 1 ( t ) - D p d - 1 ( t - 1 ) &rsqb; , i f i &le; 2 t l - ( - 15.59 N m 2 + 63.63 N m - 68.00 ) , i f i > 2 , j < 3 t l - ( 1.17 j - 2.27 ) , i f i > 2 , j &GreaterEqual; 3 .
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Cited By (12)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105702035A (en) * 2016-03-23 2016-06-22 武汉大学 Method for evaluating bus taking difficulty degree by using historical bus data
CN106448155A (en) * 2016-08-29 2017-02-22 北京工业大学 System for real-time transmitting crowded level inside bus based on public transport IC card
CN106777703A (en) * 2016-12-19 2017-05-31 杭州讯阳科技有限公司 A kind of bus passenger real-time analyzer and its construction method
CN108364464A (en) * 2018-02-02 2018-08-03 北京航空航天大学 A kind of public transit vehicle hourage modeling method based on probabilistic model
CN109214542A (en) * 2017-06-30 2019-01-15 北京嘀嘀无限科技发展有限公司 Frequency predictor method and device based on big data
CN109241136A (en) * 2018-08-24 2019-01-18 深圳市赛为智能股份有限公司 Bus waiting monitoring method, device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN110992726A (en) * 2019-10-28 2020-04-10 上海城市交通设计院有限公司 Method for identifying arrival of bus and dividing up-down movement and shift of bus
CN111627239A (en) * 2019-02-28 2020-09-04 腾讯大地通途（北京）科技有限公司 Display method, device and equipment of public transport information and storage medium
CN112092867A (en) * 2020-09-07 2020-12-18 通号城市轨道交通技术有限公司 Train arrival information prediction method and device
CN113034889A (en) * 2021-03-15 2021-06-25 重庆交通开投科技发展有限公司 Round time calculation method based on public traffic network and GPS data
CN113053118A (en) * 2021-03-18 2021-06-29 重庆交通开投科技发展有限公司 Method for predicting cross-line operation cycle time in centralized scheduling
CN113643538A (en) * 2021-08-11 2021-11-12 昆山轨道交通投资置业有限公司 Public transport passenger flow measuring and calculating method with integrated IC card historical data and manual survey data

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105702035A (en) * 2016-03-23 2016-06-22 武汉大学 Method for evaluating bus taking difficulty degree by using historical bus data
CN106448155A (en) * 2016-08-29 2017-02-22 北京工业大学 System for real-time transmitting crowded level inside bus based on public transport IC card
CN106777703A (en) * 2016-12-19 2017-05-31 杭州讯阳科技有限公司 A kind of bus passenger real-time analyzer and its construction method
CN109214542A (en) * 2017-06-30 2019-01-15 北京嘀嘀无限科技发展有限公司 Frequency predictor method and device based on big data
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CN111627239A (en) * 2019-02-28 2020-09-04 腾讯大地通途（北京）科技有限公司 Display method, device and equipment of public transport information and storage medium
CN110992726A (en) * 2019-10-28 2020-04-10 上海城市交通设计院有限公司 Method for identifying arrival of bus and dividing up-down movement and shift of bus
CN112092867A (en) * 2020-09-07 2020-12-18 通号城市轨道交通技术有限公司 Train arrival information prediction method and device
CN113034889A (en) * 2021-03-15 2021-06-25 重庆交通开投科技发展有限公司 Round time calculation method based on public traffic network and GPS data
CN113053118A (en) * 2021-03-18 2021-06-29 重庆交通开投科技发展有限公司 Method for predicting cross-line operation cycle time in centralized scheduling
CN113643538A (en) * 2021-08-11 2021-11-12 昆山轨道交通投资置业有限公司 Public transport passenger flow measuring and calculating method with integrated IC card historical data and manual survey data

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