CN105334551A - Power grid weather predicting and early-warning system based on numerical weather prediction model - Google Patents
Power grid weather predicting and early-warning system based on numerical weather prediction model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power grid weather predicting and early-warning system based on a numerical weather prediction model. The power grid weather predicting and early-warning system comprises a numerical weather predicting system, a micrometeorological data collection system, an MOS predicting system and a weather predicting system, the micrometeorological data collection system is connected with the MOS predicting system, the numerical weather predicting system is connected with the MOS predicting system and the weather predicting system, the MOS predicting system is connected with the weather predicting system, and the weather predicting system is used for conducting predicting, early-warning, querying, counting and analyzing on weather phenomena of an area under administration and providing a visualized graph interface by taking data obtained by the numerical weather predicting system and data obtained by the MOS predicting system as bases. The power grid weather predicting and early-warning system based on the numerical weather prediction model has the advantage that quantitative prediction can be conducted automatically without relying on external numerical weather predictions.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power monitoring technical field, particularly, relate to the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model.
Background technology
In order to effective detection of grid meteorological disaster, ensure line security, line status monitoring system obtains to be widely applied, and have accumulated the Monitoring Data of magnanimity.These data can be used for real-time diagnosis on the one hand, grasp the current state of transmission line of electricity, can be used for evaluation history on the other hand, carry out Probability estimate to the meteorological disaster risk in region.And current public weather services and electrical network meteorological information service system can't meet the actual demand of transmission line of electricity O&M, be mainly manifested in: spatial and temporal resolution does not also become more meticulous the required degree of electrical network O&M, cannot combine closely with real work; Due to the sparse or even white space of transmission of electricity corridor area routine observation often, the accuracy of forecast cannot meet circuit O&M needs; Numerical weather forecast data dependence is outside, cannot realize two-way sharing with existing observation data.
Publication number is the Chinese patent " meteorological disaster prewarning system for power network " of CN102279424A, disclose a kind of meteorological disaster prewarning system for power network, its structural feature is, includes radar Doppler, radar data treating apparatus, radar data recognition device, longitude and latitude sampler, power grid GIS (GeographicInformationSystem) system and Short-term Forecast device.Its advantage is, Doppler Radar Data and power grid GIS system is realized the organic combination of regional information and disaster information, can see the meteorological condition in setting regions intuitively, obtain the Short-term Forecast information of corresponding situation in power grid GIS system.Publication number is the Chinese patent " power grid meteorological disaster monitor and early warning system " of CN103033855A, disclose a kind of power grid meteorological disaster monitor and early warning system, specifically comprise data acquisition subsystem, Data Analysis subsystem, data storage subsystem, hazard weather overview display subsystem.Its advantage is accurately to locate the electrical network facilities by disaster weather effect.
Meso-scale meteorology develops an important branch rapidly in modern weather science, the air Mesoscale Motion that it is studied, and is related to discovery and prevention that Regional Gravity wants diastrous weather.One side is wherein by meso-scale model, carries out deep modeling effort and forecast experiments to Study of Meso Scale Weather process.Along with developing rapidly of computer technology in recent years, meso-scale model reaches its maturity.Mesoscale Numerical weather forecasting pattern has many, and such as WRF computing system is current domestic and international application pattern comparatively widely.
Mesoscale Numerical weather forecasting pattern WRF is the mesoscale model of new generation grown up in previous generation MM5 pattern, is the abbreviation of WeatherResearchForecastingmodel.WRF modular system is the mesoscale Forecast Mode of new generation and the assimilation system that are jointly participated in developing research by the scientist of many American Studies departments and university.WRF modular system will become the instrument improved from cloud yardstick to different scale significant weather feature forecast precisions such as synoptic scales, and emphasis considers the horizontal grid of 1 ~ 10 kilometer.This pattern possesses high scalability, is pattern the most frequently used in current weather forecast system.The calculated amount of carrying out marine numerical simulation with WRF is general comparatively large, therefore needs to carry out parallel computation on HPCC.
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is to provide and does not a kind ofly rely on the weather forecast of external number value, independently carries out quantitative forecast, electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model.
The present invention's adopted technical scheme that solves the problem is:
Based on the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system of numerical weather prediction model, comprise numerical weather forecast system, microclimate data acquisition system (DAS), MOS(ModelOutputStatistics, MOS) forecast system and meteorological prognoses system, microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) connects MOS forecast system, numerical weather forecast system connects MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system respectively, and MOS forecast system connects weather prognosis system.
Numerical weather forecast system for receiving data of weather forecast, and exports numerical weather forecast based on data of weather forecast, numerical weather forecast is delivered to MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system.
Microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) is for the timeliness weather data that gathers local meteorological observation website and provide and send into MOS forecast system.
MOS forecast system based on microclimate data acquisition system to local timeliness weather data predicted the outcome, and to compare with the history True Data in this region in microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) and the on-line monitoring weather data in this region this is predicted the outcome, analyze MOS forecast system to the improvement degree of Public meteorology forecast result and the accuracy of MOS forecast system forecast result and the reliability of on-line monitoring information, and predicted the outcome, comparative analysis result and local timeliness weather data be delivered to weather prognosis system.
Based on the data that weather prognosis system obtains by numerical weather forecast system and the data that MOS forecast system obtains, for forecasting the weather phenomenon in area under one's jurisdiction, early warning, inquiry, statistics and analysis,
The present invention includes numerical weather forecast system and meteorological prognoses system two modules, meanwhile also have MOS(ModelOutputStatistics) system, data transmission etc. coordinate with it.Numerical weather forecast system realizes short-term forecasting to target area, predicts the outcome to set up MOS system in conjunction with field data, and revise predicting the outcome, revised result is sent to weather prognosis system and realizes man-machine interaction.Achieve and do not rely on the weather forecast of external number value, independently carry out quantitative forecast, become the important references of microclimate district transmission line of electricity safe operation forecast.
Further, weather prognosis system has visualized graph interface, for showing forecast result, early warning result, statistics, analysis result and realizing man-machine interaction.
Further, described numerical weather forecast system comprises data input module, numerical weather forecast server, output module and post-processing module, data input module, numerical weather forecast server, output module is connected successively with post-processing module, load module is used for data of weather forecast to be input to numerical weather forecast server, numerical weather forecast server adopts business NWP(NumericalWeatherPrediction, numerical weather forecast) system to data of weather forecast carry out business NWP prediction, output module is used for exporting weather forecast data prediction result to post-processing module, post-processing module is for the numerical evaluation that becomes more meticulous to weather forecast data prediction result, and result of calculation is delivered to MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system.
Further, business NWP system adopts WRF mesoscale model, starts a businessization prediction at interval of fixing duration, to become more meticulous numerical evaluation, dope following ultra-short term, short-range weather factor change to target area.Preferably, within every 24 hours, start the prediction of businessization, target area is become more meticulous numerical evaluation, dopes following 0-4 hour ultra-short term, 0-72 hour short-range weather factor change.
Further, described numerical weather forecast server is cluster computer.
Further, described MOS forecast system is predicted the outcome by carrying out iterative computation to the local timeliness weather data of collection.
Further, predicting the outcome that MOS forecast system exports comprises typical meteorological data prediction and weather phenomenon forecasting and warning, described draw together typical meteorological data prediction in real time, regularly, quantitatively in the line corridor of area under one's jurisdiction, the typical meteorological data affecting transmission line of electricity safe operation carry out high precision short-term forecasting and ultra-short term prediction, wherein, weather data comprises at least one item in wind speed, gas epidemic disaster, air pressure, rainfall amount, precipitation intensity, light radiation intensity; Described weather phenomenon forecasting and warning is forecast the various weather phenomena in the line corridor of area under one's jurisdiction in real time, regularly, quantitatively, according to weather phenomenon, the classification of severity that transmission line of electricity affects is not shown, early warning is carried out on the hazard weather that may affect transmission line of electricity safety, wherein, electrical network weather comprises at least one item in typhoon, heavy rain, severe snow, cold wave, strong wind, high temperature, thunder and lightning, hail, frost, dense fog, haze, sleet.
Further, described weather prognosis system comprises:
Predicted data library module, for store numerical weather forecast server export weather forecast data prediction result, ultra-short term weather forecasting data, short term predicted data, local timeliness weather data, MOS forecast system export predict the outcome, comparative analysis result;
Data analysis module, for obtained by logarithm value weather forecast system and MOS forecast system the data accumulation predicted the outcome, data mining, based on different inquiry mode, analyzing and processing is carried out to data, result stored in predicted data library module,
Human-computer interface module, for representing actual measurement weather data, prediction intermediate result and net result with forms such as data form, graph or histograms to user,
Error analysis module, for adding up the qualification rate of the quality of data of short-term forecasting and ultra-short term prediction, average relative error and related coefficient, stored in predicted data library module, for optimization system error provides basis,
Forecast quality analysis module, for the forecast quality of native system and the forecast quality of public weather services are analyzed, analysis result stored in predicted data library module,
Predicted data library module connects MOS forecast system, numerical weather forecast system, data analysis module, human-computer interface module, error analysis module and forecast quality analysis module respectively.
Further, described weather prognosis system also comprises user authentication module, for carrying out classification to the access rights of different identity user.User authentication module connects human-computer interface module.
To sum up, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
1, the present invention includes numerical weather forecast system and meteorological prognoses system two modules, meanwhile also have MOS(ModelOutputStatistics) system, data transmission etc. coordinate with it.Numerical weather forecast system realizes short-term forecasting to target area, predicts the outcome to set up MOS system in conjunction with field data, and revise predicting the outcome, revised result is sent to weather prognosis system and realizes man-machine interaction.
2, the present invention can start the prediction of businessization for every 24 hours, to become more meticulous numerical evaluation, dope the meteorological element change of following 72 hours to target area.
3, present invention achieves and do not rely on the weather forecast of external number value, independently carry out quantitative forecast, become the important references of microclimate district transmission line of electricity safe operation forecast.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is system architecture diagram of the present invention,
Fig. 2 is the structured flowchart of weather prognosis system of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment and accompanying drawing, to the detailed description further of the present invention's do, but embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.
Embodiment:
As shown in Figure 1, based on the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system of numerical weather prediction model, comprise numerical weather forecast system, microclimate data acquisition system (DAS), MOS(ModelOutputStatistics, MOS) forecast system and meteorological prognoses system, microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) connects MOS forecast system, numerical weather forecast system connects MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system respectively, and MOS forecast system connects weather prognosis system.
Numerical weather forecast system for receiving data of weather forecast, and exports numerical weather forecast based on data of weather forecast, numerical weather forecast is delivered to MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system.
Microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) is for the timeliness weather data that gathers local meteorological observation website and provide and send into MOS forecast system.
MOS forecast system based on microclimate data acquisition system to local timeliness weather data predicted the outcome, and to compare with the history True Data in this region in microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) and the on-line monitoring weather data in this region this is predicted the outcome, analyze MOS forecast system to the improvement degree of Public meteorology forecast result and the accuracy of MOS forecast system forecast result and the reliability of on-line monitoring information, and predicted the outcome, comparative analysis result and local timeliness weather data be delivered to weather prognosis system.
Based on the data that weather prognosis system obtains by numerical weather forecast system and the data that MOS forecast system obtains, for forecasting the weather phenomenon in area under one's jurisdiction, early warning, inquiry, statistics and analysis.
The present invention includes numerical weather forecast system and meteorological prognoses system two modules, meanwhile also have MOS(ModelOutputStatistics) system, data transmission etc. coordinate with it.Numerical weather forecast system realizes short-term forecasting to target area, predicts the outcome to set up MOS system in conjunction with field data, and revise predicting the outcome, revised result is sent to weather prognosis system and realizes man-machine interaction.Achieve and do not rely on the weather forecast of external number value, independently carry out quantitative forecast, become the important references of microclimate district transmission line of electricity safe operation forecast.
Further, weather prognosis system has visualized graph interface, for showing forecast result, early warning result, statistics, analysis result and realizing man-machine interaction.
Further, as shown in Figure 2, described numerical weather forecast system comprises data input module, numerical weather forecast server, output module and post-processing module, data input module, numerical weather forecast server, output module is connected successively with post-processing module, load module is used for data of weather forecast to be input to numerical weather forecast server, numerical weather forecast server adopts business NWP(NumericalWeatherPrediction, numerical weather forecast) system to data of weather forecast carry out business NWP prediction, output module is used for exporting weather forecast data prediction result to post-processing module, post-processing module is for the numerical evaluation that becomes more meticulous to weather forecast data prediction result, and result of calculation is delivered to MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system.
Further, business NWP system adopts WRF mesoscale model, starts a businessization prediction at interval of fixing duration, to become more meticulous numerical evaluation, dope following ultra-short term, short-range weather factor change to target area.Preferably, within every 24 hours, start the prediction of businessization, target area is become more meticulous numerical evaluation, dopes following 0-4 hour ultra-short term, 0-72 hour short-range weather factor change.
Further, described numerical weather forecast server is cluster computer.
Further, described MOS forecast system is predicted the outcome by carrying out iterative computation to the local timeliness weather data of collection.
Further, predicting the outcome that MOS forecast system exports comprises typical meteorological data prediction and weather phenomenon forecasting and warning, described draw together typical meteorological data prediction in real time, regularly, quantitatively in the line corridor of area under one's jurisdiction, the typical meteorological data affecting transmission line of electricity safe operation carry out high precision short-term forecasting and ultra-short term prediction, wherein, weather data comprises at least one item in wind speed, gas epidemic disaster, air pressure, rainfall amount, precipitation intensity, light radiation intensity; Described weather phenomenon forecasting and warning is forecast the various weather phenomena in the line corridor of area under one's jurisdiction in real time, regularly, quantitatively, according to weather phenomenon, the classification of severity that transmission line of electricity affects is not shown, early warning is carried out on the hazard weather that may affect transmission line of electricity safety, wherein, electrical network weather comprises at least one item in typhoon, heavy rain, severe snow, cold wave, strong wind, high temperature, thunder and lightning, hail, frost, dense fog, haze, sleet.
Further, described weather prognosis system comprises:
Predicted data library module, for store numerical weather forecast server export weather forecast data prediction result, ultra-short term weather forecasting data, short term predicted data, local timeliness weather data, MOS forecast system export predict the outcome, comparative analysis result;
Data analysis module, for obtained by logarithm value weather forecast system and MOS forecast system the data accumulation predicted the outcome, data mining, based on different inquiry mode, analyzing and processing is carried out to data, result stored in predicted data library module,
Human-computer interface module, for representing actual measurement weather data, prediction intermediate result and net result with forms such as data form, graph or histograms to user,
Error analysis module, for adding up the qualification rate of the quality of data of short-term forecasting and ultra-short term prediction, average relative error and related coefficient, stored in predicted data library module, for optimization system error provides basis,
Forecast quality analysis module, for the forecast quality of native system and the forecast quality of public weather services are analyzed, analysis result stored in predicted data library module,
Predicted data library module connects MOS forecast system, numerical weather forecast system, data analysis module, human-computer interface module, error analysis module and forecast quality analysis module respectively.
Further, described weather prognosis system also comprises user authentication module, for carrying out classification to the access rights of different identity user.User authentication module connects human-computer interface module.
As mentioned above, the present invention can be realized preferably.
Claims (8)
1. based on the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system of numerical weather prediction model, it is characterized in that, comprise numerical weather forecast system, microclimate data acquisition system (DAS), MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system, microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) connects MOS forecast system, numerical weather forecast system connects MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system respectively, and MOS forecast system connects weather prognosis system;
Numerical weather forecast system for receiving data of weather forecast, and exports numerical weather forecast based on data of weather forecast, numerical weather forecast is delivered to MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system,
Microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) is for the timeliness weather data that gathers local meteorological observation website and provide and send into MOS forecast system,
MOS forecast system based on microclimate data acquisition system to local timeliness weather data predicted the outcome, and to compare with the history True Data in this region in microclimate data acquisition system (DAS) and the on-line monitoring weather data in this region this is predicted the outcome, analyze MOS forecast system to the improvement degree of Public meteorology forecast result and the accuracy of MOS forecast system forecast result and the reliability of on-line monitoring information, and predicted the outcome, comparative analysis result and local timeliness weather data be delivered to weather prognosis system;
Based on the data that weather prognosis system obtains by numerical weather forecast system and the data that MOS forecast system obtains, for forecasting the weather phenomenon in area under one's jurisdiction, early warning, inquiry, statistics and analysis.
2. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described numerical weather forecast system comprises data input module, numerical weather forecast server, output module and post-processing module,
Data input module, numerical weather forecast server, output module are connected successively with post-processing module,
Load module is used for data of weather forecast to be input to numerical weather forecast server,
Numerical weather forecast server adopts business NWP system to carry out business NWP prediction to data of weather forecast, and output module is used for exporting weather forecast data prediction result to post-processing module,
Result of calculation for the numerical evaluation that becomes more meticulous to weather forecast data prediction result, and is delivered to MOS forecast system and meteorological prognoses system by post-processing module.
3. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described MOS forecast system is predicted the outcome by carrying out iterative computation to the local timeliness weather data of collection.
4. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described weather prognosis system comprises:
Predicted data library module, for store numerical weather forecast server export weather forecast data prediction result, ultra-short term weather forecasting data, short term predicted data, local timeliness weather data, MOS forecast system export predict the outcome, comparative analysis result;
Data analysis module, for obtained by logarithm value weather forecast system and MOS forecast system the data accumulation predicted the outcome, data mining, analyzing and processing is carried out to data, result stored in predicted data library module,
Human-computer interface module, for representing actual measurement weather data, prediction intermediate result and net result with forms such as data form, graph or histograms to user,
Error analysis module, for adding up the qualification rate of the quality of data of short-term forecasting and ultra-short term prediction, average relative error and related coefficient, stored in predicted data library module, for optimization system error provides basis,
Forecast quality analysis module, for the forecast quality of native system and the forecast quality of public weather services are analyzed, analysis result stored in predicted data library module,
Predicted data library module connects MOS forecast system, numerical weather forecast system, data analysis module, human-computer interface module, error analysis module and forecast quality analysis module respectively.
5. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 4, it is characterized in that, described weather prognosis system also comprises user authentication module, and for carrying out classification to the access rights of different identity user, user authentication module connects human-computer interface module.
6. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, predicting the outcome that MOS forecast system exports comprises typical meteorological data prediction and weather phenomenon forecasting and warning, described typical meteorological data prediction of drawing together is real-time, regularly, quantitatively in the line corridor of area under one's jurisdiction, the weather data affecting transmission line of electricity safe operation carries out high precision short-term forecasting and ultra-short term prediction, wherein, weather data comprises wind speed, temperature, humidity, air pressure, rainfall amount, precipitation intensity, at least one item in light radiation intensity, described weather phenomenon forecasting and warning is forecast the weather phenomenon in the line corridor of area under one's jurisdiction in real time, regularly, quantitatively, according to weather phenomenon, the classification of severity that transmission line of electricity affects is not shown, early warning is carried out on the hazard weather that may affect transmission line of electricity safety, wherein, electrical network weather comprises at least one item in typhoon, heavy rain, severe snow, cold wave, strong wind, high temperature, thunder and lightning, hail, frost, dense fog, haze, sleet.
7. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, business NWP system adopts WRF mesoscale model, a businessization prediction is started at interval of fixing duration, target area is become more meticulous numerical evaluation, dopes following ultra-short term, short-range weather factor change.
8. the electrical network weather prognosis early warning system based on numerical weather prediction model according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, described numerical weather forecast server is cluster computer.
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