CN101484857B - 使用拥挤预测度量自动选择穿过拥挤区域的替换路线的装置和方法 - Google Patents

使用拥挤预测度量自动选择穿过拥挤区域的替换路线的装置和方法 Download PDF

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CN101484857B
CN101484857B CN2007800041777A CN200780004177A CN101484857B CN 101484857 B CN101484857 B CN 101484857B CN 2007800041777 A CN2007800041777 A CN 2007800041777A CN 200780004177 A CN200780004177 A CN 200780004177A CN 101484857 B CN101484857 B CN 101484857B
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乔尔·基克布希
约瑟夫·W·菲尔普
米切尔·S·威尔斯
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Abstract

本发明提供了一种使用拥挤预测度量自动选择穿过拥挤区域的替换路线的装置和方法。用于移动多个目标穿过多路径系统的调度系统和方法，该调度系统被描述为载货铁路调度系统。该调度系统成本反应资源调度装置来最小化资源异常，同时最小化与该方案相关联的总成本。实现的运动计划可被用于辅助控制或自动控制列车穿过系统的运动。使用拥挤预测度量(200)-(230)，穿过拥挤区域的替换路线被自动选择(240)。

Description

使用拥挤预测度量自动选择穿过拥挤区域的替换路线的装置和方法
技术领域
本发明涉及通过复杂运动限定系统调度多个单元的运动，且在揭示的实施例中，涉及调度货车列车在铁路系统上的运动，且特别涉及穿过拥挤的区域的列车的替换路线规划。
背景技术
用于调度在铁路网上的列车的运动的系统和方法已经在美国专利6154735、5794172和5623413中描述，其公开内容合并于此以作参考。
如参考的专利和申请所公开的，其公开内容合并于此以作参考，铁路包括三个主要部分：(1)铁轨基础设施，包括轨道、道岔(switch)、通讯系统和控制系统；(2)铁路车辆，包括机车和车厢；以及(3)操作和保养铁路的人员(或机务人员)。通常，这些部分中的每个都通过使用高水平的调度而被使用，通过该调度，人员、机车和车厢被分配到轨道各段且允许它们在该轨道上以一方式运动，通过该方式避免碰撞且允许铁路系统发送货物到各个目的地。
如参考申请所公开的，精确控制系统包括使用优化调度装置，该装置将调度轨道系统的所有方面，考虑物理法则、铁路规则、人员工作条例、与各客户订立的实际合同条款和任意边界条件或约束，该条件或约束控制可能的解或时刻表，例如旅客运输、某些设备的运行时间、轨道保养、工作规则等。边界条件与每一次行动的价值演算的组合将导致一时刻表，其最大化了某些价值，例如总系统成本。
如参考申请所公开的，关于确定时刻表，可使用细粒结构(fine grainstructure)建立对于实际控制列车的运动必需的运动计划。这样的细粒机构包括按人名来分配人员以及按数字来分配特定机车，且可包括对于跨铁路网的列车的运动确定精确的时间和在一时间内的距离和列车操作的所有细节，动力水平、转弯、坡度、轨道拓扑、风和天气条件。该运动计划可被用于指导列车的人工调度和控制牵引力，或被设置到机车以使得其可被火车司机执行或通过机车上的可转换动作自动执行。
计划系统实质上是分等级的，其中问题被抽象到相对高的级别以用于初始优化过程，且然后因此得到的解被映射到较低的抽象低级别以用于进一步优化。在所有级别使用统计处理，以最小化总的计算量，使得整个处理可计算地执行。使用专家系统作为这些处理的管理器，且该专家系统也是一工具，通过该工具，建立解算的各种边界条件和约束。在此使用的专家系统可允许使用者提供设置在解算处理中的规则。
当前，调度员的控制铁路地域的观点可被认为是近视的。调度员仅在他们自己的控制地域内观察和处理信息，且很少或没有考虑邻近地域的运行或把铁路网作为一整体。由于单独的调度员在铁路网的较小部分上的决定，当前调度系统简单地执行控制，且可以预期在轨道上的目标的运动(如列车、保养车辆、勘察车辆等)和可利用的轨道源限制(如轨道数目、退役轨道、考虑靠近活动轨道的保养人员的安全的限制)之间发生的冲突时，调度员只能利用稍微提前的洞察或警告来解决。
在列车的运行中，拥挤不可避免地发生且是一个显著的问题。列车进入拥挤区域的路线规划倾向于加剧拥挤且可导致死锁(deadlock)。由于列车的运动延迟受到包括合同处罚在内的成本限制，调度员倾向于尽可能快地连续推动列车穿过一区域，只要可能地话就使它们沿该线路前进，且把导致的拥挤作为要解决的轨道可用性问题处理，通过分配轨道资源来建立穿过拥挤区域的替换路线来解决。在相邻区域中调度员使用的运动计划器通常完全彼此独立且没有被通知相邻地区的轨道状况。因此，非拥挤区域中的调度员可能连续发送列车进入相邻地区中的拥挤区域。
发明内容
本发明涉及以较小轨道段上的列车的运动为代价来预测和避免拥挤，以最大化整个系统中的列车的吞吐量。
拥挤通常是由于调度员在列车运动计划器的辅助下采取的行动，即在实际拥挤出现之前采取的行动，导致的结果。在拥挤被实际检测到之前，其他列车处于穿过该拥挤区域的途中且可能已经过系统中替换路线可被选择的点。
典型地，列车穿过预期的拥挤区域的路线是由调度员使用部落知识，即通过调度员的个人经验和其他调度员传给他的经验获得的知识，处理。
相应地，本发明的目的是通过管理列车进入拥挤区域来减少拥挤和避免死锁。
通过熟读权利要求书、附图和优选实施例的下面的详细描述，本发明的这些和其他目的对于本发明所述的领域的技术人员是显而易见的。
附图说明
图1是本发明的一个实施例的简化示意图，其用于分成控制区域的轨道网；
图2是调度方法的一个实施例的简化流程图，该方法预测选择的路线上的拥挤的发生。
具体实施方式
如图1所示，总铁路网105可被划分为一个或多个控制区域100(100A-100C)，其每个都具有调度员110(110A-110C)，该调度员被分配以管理列车(102)穿过他自己的控制区域100的运动。中央运动计划器120基于从铁路信息支持中心130接收的输入提供基于总铁路网105的运动计划的网络。铁路信息支持中心130提供关于轨道资源和适于计划资源的使用的其它信息。中央运动计划器120产生运动计划，用于轨道网150中的资源，且提供该计划给自动调度装置140，运动计划器120还可从自动调度装置140接收运动计划的执行的更新信息，且可更新当前运动计划。自动调度装置140为每个调度员110提供运动计划，以管理在他们各自的控制区域110中的列车资源。
如参考申请所述，自动调度装置140可通过使用具有由特殊或通用计算机执行的计算机可读代码的计算机可用介质而被实现。自动调度装置140通过适当的通讯链路(communication link)150与轨道网上的列车102通讯，该通讯链路例如为移动电话、卫星或路边信号装置。
调度员发出和批准运动授权的发布和轨道限制、计划路上行动的维护和与列车工作人员，车场管理员和其他与铁路的优化的运行计划一致的铁路人员通讯。虽然调度员将依赖运动计划器来解决列车的优化运动的复杂问题，调度员将积极地输入保持优化的计划所需的必要数据且识别计划异常。
如参考申请所述，通过为运动计划器120提供来自铁路信息支持中心130的信息促进了增强的计划，其使得列车组事件(如装载、工作人员变化、机车目的地)与计划的列车行动相关联，以使得传统列车表格数据的维护(通过电子通讯或使用者数据输入)自动地反映在供运动计划使用的列车行程说明上，其中该列车行动占用轨道资源一持续的驻留时间。
根据该信息，且借助期望嵌入在运动计划器120中的适当的传统交通流量分析算法，特定地理区域内的拥挤可被识别且其它区域内的调度员被告知存在拥挤且拒绝把列车推进到该拥挤区域。因此，交通流量分析算法可检测且还可被用于预测未来拥挤的发生。
本申请还涉及倾向于拥挤的区域的识别以及在预测的拥挤前充分地采取行动以最小化或同时避免拥挤。在一个实施例中，导致拥挤的事件的历史数据库的维护可被用在预测拥挤中。例如，历史数据库的分析可识别与拥挤相关联的因素。这样的因素实际上可能是时间性的，如在3:00和5:00p.m.之间，或季节性的，如在冬季。这些因素可包括环境状况、轨道拓扑、列车类型、工作人员的识别、或者其它可能影响拥挤的可能性的因素。每个因素都可根据其对于拥挤的发生的贡献而被赋予一度量(metric)。这些因素还可依赖于因素的贡献而被加权。通过统计分析，可确定特定路线，被调度的列车在该路线的使用可能使得该路线的积累度量超过预定的阈值，该阈值表示拥挤可能发生。拥挤度量可被运动计划器用于调度列车到替换路线，以减少给定路线的度量到预定阈值之下。
图2示出了本申请的一个实施例。调度列车的运动的方法可通过预测拥挤的发生而完成，该拥挤是由于在选择的路线上的列车的计划运动造成。有助于拥挤的因素被识别200。这些因素可通过收集和分析选择的路线上的列车的历史性能而被识别。一旦这些因素被识别，度量可被赋予每个因素210，以说明该因素对拥挤的贡献。一因素可被相对于其他因素适当地加权，或可被链接到其它因素，以说明这些因素之间存在的关系。于是，基于选择的路线上的列车的计划运动，每个路线可被评估以确定拥挤的概率。这是通过评估在选择的路线220上的列车的每个计划运动的度量而完成。如果给定路线的积累度量超过某预定阈值230，列车的一个或多个计划的运动可被重新调度到替换路线240.
在另一实施例中，如果一路线的积累的度量超过预定阈值，可进一步评估以确定每个计划的列车对于预测的拥挤的贡献，且贡献最大的列车可被选择并重新调度到一替换路线。
这些调度方法可利用计算机可用介质执行，该介质具有由特定用途或通用计算机执行的计算机可读代码。
其它可被考虑以预测拥挤的因素包括列车密度、列车类型、控制列车的特定工作人员的识别、列车负担的负荷的类型、列车的物理约束以及网络拓扑，包括交叉数量、旁轨可用度、地域限制或宵禁。这些因素的加权可基于历史统计且可作为其它因素的函数而变化。例如，列车的重量可以是一因素，其在轨道拓扑因素表示陡坡的区域具有更重的权重。
路线的组合度量必须不超过预定阈值，以设法减少拥挤的可能性。同样路线的度量可与具有替换计划的同一路线比较，以选择该路线上导致最低拥挤度量的计划运动。因此，对于路线上的多个不同计划运动，路线度量评估可被执行，以选择导致最低拥挤的可能性的计划运动。
出发时间可被延迟和/或可为沿线路在途中的列车建立安全地点。因此可防止死锁，且替换路线可保持不阻塞，以供清除拥挤的运动计划器120使用。
虽然列车在非拥挤区域的延迟可能是成本昂贵的，但是该成本与穿过该系统的交通流量的整体改善导致的实现的节省相比是微不足道的。
虽然已描述了本发明的优选实施例，应理解，所述实施例仅是示意性的，当与整个范围的等价物一致时，本发明的范围仅由权利要求限定，本领域技术人员熟读本申请可自然地做出许多变化和修改。

Claims (9)

1.一种通过预测由于在选择的路线上的列车的计划运动导致的拥挤的发生并采取行动最小化拥挤来调度在选择的路线上的每个列车在铁路网上的运动的方法，该方法包括：
a、识别影响拥挤的因素(200)；
b、为每个因素赋予度量(210)，该度量表示该因素对拥挤的贡献；
c、对于在选择的路线上的列车的每一计划运动评估与选择的路线相关的度量(220)；以及
d、如果对于选择的路线累积的度量超过预定阈值(230)，则把调度到选择的路线的一个或多个列车重新调度到替换路线(240)。
2.如权利要求1所述的方法，其中该识别步骤包括评估在选择的路线上的列车运动的历史性能。
3.如权利要求1所述的方法，其中所述因素作为其对拥挤的相对影响的函数而被加权。
4.如权利要求1所述的方法，其中步骤c包括累积选择的路线的度量。
5.如权利要求1所述的方法，其中所述预定阈值选定为在选择的路线上的列车的拥挤运动的历史事件的函数。
6.如权利要求1所述的方法，其中调度一个或多个列车到替换路线的步骤包括评估为选择的路线计划的每个列车的度量，并选择具有最高度量的列车，以将其重新调度到替换路线上。
7.如权利要求1所述的方法，其中所述因素包括列车密度、环境、时间、季节和轨道拓扑中的至少一个。
8.一种通过预测由于在选择的路线上的列车的计划运动导致的拥挤的发生并采取行动最小化拥挤来调度在选择的路线上的每个列车在铁路网上的运动的方法，该方法包括：
a、识别对拥挤有影响的因素(200)；
b、为每个因素赋予度量(210)，该度量表示该因素对拥挤的贡献；
c、评估与选择的路线上的多个列车的第一计划运动相关的度量(220)；
d、评估与选择的路线上的多个列车的第二计划运动相关的度量(220)；以及
e、选择具有最低组合度量的第一和第二计划运动中的一个，用于调度在选择的路线上的列车的运动。
9.如权利要求8所述的方法，其中所述因素包括列车密度、环境、时间、季节和轨道拓扑中的至少一个。
CN2007800041777A 2006-01-31 2007-01-20 使用拥挤预测度量自动选择穿过拥挤区域的替换路线的装置和方法 Active CN101484857B (zh)

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AU2007210230A1 (en) 2007-08-09
US20060212188A1 (en) 2006-09-21
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